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KUBIAK UPDATE
7/22: Adds 2007 red zone target and carry data, solves error in IDP formula for top three linebackers
7/21: Changes DAL RB
Adjusts for Taylor and Shockey trades
7/19: JAC WR, CLE WR
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Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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Baseball Prospectus Basketball Prospectus

WIDE RECEIVERS 2007

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 7/10/2008

Wide receivers are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

True Yards, listed in red, translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more True Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer True Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. True Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR.

DYAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both complete and incomplete. Catch Rate represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for this.

  • We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
  • These statistics measure only passes thrown to a receiver, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.
  • All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

The simple version: DYAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.

RECEIVING: Minimum 50 passes, 87 players ranked

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
81-R.Moss NE 569 1 562 1 29.3% 4 28.8% 160 1,482 1,943 23 61%
81-T.Owens DAL 449 2 435 3 28.2% 5 27.0% 141 1,355 1,555 15 57%
87-R.Wayne IND 443 3 440 2 22.5% 10 22.2% 156 1,515 1,681 10 67%
83-W.Welker NE 384 4 354 4 21.3% 11 18.7% 145 1,175 1,486 9 77%
12-M.Colston NO 351 5 341 5 16.8% 14 15.9% 144 1,202 1,487 11 68%
85-C.Johnson CIN 305 6 291 8 10.9% 24 9.9% 161 1,441 1,503 9 58%
85-G.Jennings GB 302 7 284 9 31.5% 2 28.8% 84 920 1,003 12 63%
11-L.Fitzgerald ARI 291 8 301 6 9.1% 28 9.8% 167 1,412 1,518 10 60%
80-A.Johnson HOU 288 9 273 11 29.9% 3 27.6% 86 851 976 8 70%
84-B.Engram SEA 270 10 293 7 12.9% 19 15.0% 134 1,151 1,260 6 70%
10-S.Holmes PIT 259 11 274 10 26.2% 6 28.5% 85 952 925 8 61%
81-T.Holt STL 244 12 245 13 7.9% 31 8.1% 149 1,193 1,324 8 62%
89-J.Cotchery NYJ 240 13 221 19 11.6% 21 9.6% 127 1,130 1,162 4 65%
11-A.Gonzalez IND 239 14 237 14 43.5% 1 43.0% 51 576 700 3 73%
84-T.Houshmandzadeh CIN 238 15 223 17 5.1% 38 4.0% 170 1,150 1,443 14 66%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
84-J.Galloway TB 230 16 250 12 16.4% 16 19.0% 98 1,014 981 8 58%
81-A.Boldin ARI 229 17 237 15 16.3% 17 17.3% 100 854 981 10 71%
80-D.Driver GB 224 18 222 18 10.2% 25 10.1% 122 1,048 1,127 3 67%
14-B.Stokley DEN 219 19 207 21 25.7% 7 23.6% 71 635 786 5 56%
82-D.Bowe KC 207 20 226 16 10.0% 27 12.0% 118 995 1,049 5 59%
84-P.Crayton DAL 205 21 186 23 19.6% 12 16.5% 81 697 822 7 62%
80-K.Curtis PHI 195 22 186 24 5.1% 37 4.3% 135 1,110 1,179 6 57%
17-B.Edwards CLE 189 23 212 20 3.3% 40 5.2% 153 1,289 1,248 16 52%
12-J.Gage TEN 189 24 200 22 14.5% 18 16.1% 85 748 845 2 65%
11-Re.Williams JAC 183 25 183 25 25.6% 8 25.7% 60 630 659 10 63%
83-K.Walter HOU 182 26 182 27 8.9% 29 8.9% 106 800 956 5 61%
82-A.Randle El WAS 179 27 183 26 16.9% 13 17.4% 77 728 760 1 66%
15-B.Marshall DEN 152 28 157 29 -1.3% 55 -0.9% 170 1,325 1,311 7 60%
18-D.Stallworth NE 150 29 146 30 12.2% 20 11.5% 74 697 713 3 62%
84-R.White ATL 148 30 167 28 1.2% 46 2.9% 137 1,204 1,091 6 61%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
10-J.Gaffney NE 144 31 135 35 22.5% 9 20.3% 50 449 546 5 72%
17-P.Burress NYG 139 32 114 44 -0.6% 53 -2.8% 141 1,025 1,141 12 50%
87-M.Furrey DET 136 33 131 40 6.5% 33 5.7% 91 664 781 2 67%
19-E.Wilford JAC 136 34 142 32 10.2% 26 11.3% 74 518 684 4 61%
81-D.Patten NO 136 35 133 38 6.6% 32 6.3% 88 792 773 4 61%
19-B.Wade MIN 133 36 132 39 8.5% 30 8.3% 83 655 709 3 65%
81-A.Toomer NYG 133 37 120 42 3.1% 41 1.6% 104 760 879 3 57%
86-D.Northcutt JAC 132 38 120 43 11.1% 23 8.9% 73 601 647 4 60%
87-L.Coles NYJ 130 39 135 34 5.7% 36 6.4% 89 646 768 7 62%
85-N.Washington PIT 124 40 133 37 16.5% 15 18.6% 56 450 531 5 52%
86-H.Ward PIT 124 41 144 31 1.8% 43 4.1% 113 736 883 7 64%
19-I.Hilliard TB 122 42 134 36 5.8% 35 7.5% 86 724 721 1 72%
11-Ro.Williams DET 115 43 111 45 1.1% 47 0.7% 105 840 849 5 61%
84-J.Jurevicius CLE 112 44 126 41 4.6% 39 6.8% 81 614 692 4 62%
80-I.Bruce STL 110 45 97 51 0.9% 49 -0.7% 101 733 824 4 54%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
84-S.McDonald DET 108 46 102 47 -1.6% 56 -2.1% 126 947 952 6 63%
44-D.Clark IND 107 47 102 49 0.6% 50 0.0% 101 616 815 11 57%
81-N.Burleson SEA 107 48 139 33 1.2% 45 5.4% 95 694 782 9 53%
89-R.Curry OAK 106 49 102 48 1.0% 48 0.5% 97 717 789 4 57%
18-S.Rice MIN 100 50 87 54 11.5% 22 8.4% 53 396 484 4 58%
83-D.Branch SEA 97 51 106 46 1.8% 44 3.0% 85 661 692 4 58%
81-C.Johnson DET 90 52 79 57 -0.3% 52 -1.7% 93 756 725 4 52%
85-D.Mason BAL 88 53 89 53 -6.0% 61 -5.8% 164 1,087 1,193 6 63%
89-C.Chambers MIA 86 54 81 55 -4.1% 58 -4.5% 129 970 937 4 51%
86-Royd.Williams TEN 85 55 96 52 -1.1% 54 0.4% 93 719 725 4 59%
12-M.Jenkins ATL 85 56 98 50 0.5% 51 2.3% 85 532 656 8 62%
16-L.Moore NO 76 57 61 59 6.3% 34 2.5% 50 302 438 3 64%
11-A.Davis HOU 75 58 80 56 2.5% 42 3.6% 63 583 512 3 52%
83-V.Jackson SD 68 59 59 60 -1.8% 57 -3.2% 81 623 601 4 51%
80-B.Berrian CHI 58 60 68 58 -6.9% 64 -5.9% 128 951 904 5 55%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
86-R.Brown PHI 47 61 31 66 -7.3% 66 -9.1% 111 780 786 4 55%
87-M.Muhammad CHI 43 62 46 62 -5.9% 60 -5.4% 81 570 582 4 49%
89-S.Smith CAR 42 63 51 61 -9.1% 68 -8.3% 148 1,002 1,013 7 58%
18-D.Carter CAR 38 64 43 63 -6.6% 63 -5.8% 75 517 567 4 51%
82-J.Reed BUF 36 65 35 64 -7.3% 65 -7.4% 87 578 602 1 59%
83-E.Moulds TEN 35 66 32 65 -4.2% 59 -4.8% 52 342 387 0 62%
82-D.Hagan MIA 29 67 28 67 -6.3% 62 -6.5% 59 373 412 2 49%
89-S.Moss WAS 25 68 10 73 -9.9% 69 -11.6% 115 808 769 3 53%
83-L.Evans BUF 21 69 26 68 -10.3% 72 -9.6% 113 849 742 6 49%
89-J.Jones GB 17 70 18 69 -10.0% 70 -9.9% 80 676 545 2 59%
80-Bry.Johnson ARI 17 71 12 72 -10.2% 71 -11.0% 88 528 591 3 52%
84-J.Porter OAK 16 72 16 71 -10.7% 73 -10.6% 102 705 663 6 43%
18-M.Jones JAC 15 73 18 70 -8.6% 67 -8.0% 50 317 331 4 48%
11-R.Parrish BUF -4 74 -21 74 -13.5% 74 -17.4% 58 352 357 1 60%
89-R.Ferguson MIN -26 75 -42 76 -17.9% 75 -21.2% 62 391 363 1 52%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
89-M.Clayton BAL -41 76 -27 75 -18.4% 76 -16.4% 89 531 520 0 54%
16-B.Smith NYJ -57 77 -81 81 -23.7% 77 -28.5% 67 325 333 3 48%
84-J.Walker DEN -66 78 -49 77 -30.2% 83 -25.7% 50 287 210 1 52%
83-D.Bennett STL -68 79 -70 79 -24.5% 78 -24.7% 73 375 370 4 45%
19-T.Ginn MIA -71 80 -67 78 -25.9% 79 -25.2% 71 420 331 2 48%
87-J.Horn ATL -79 81 -72 80 -32.1% 85 -30.3% 52 243 214 1 52%
19-L.Robinson ATL -98 82 -84 82 -29.5% 82 -27.2% 74 437 327 1 50%
80-J.Webb KC -115 83 -106 83 -39.6% 87 -37.5% 57 313 177 1 49%
86-M.Booker MIA -122 84 -114 86 -27.3% 80 -26.3% 105 556 498 1 48%
83-K.Colbert CAR -122 85 -109 84 -34.6% 86 -32.3% 69 332 273 0 46%
82-D.Jackson SF -126 86 -112 85 -27.9% 81 -26.1% 104 495 489 5 44%
83-A.Battle SF -151 87 -122 87 -31.3% 84 -27.8% 104 600 435 5 48%

RECEIVING, OTHERS: 10-49 passes

Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
85-J.Urban ARI 101 92 22.4% 19.1% 38 329 384 3 58%
18-D.Hackett SEA 99 100 12.8% 13.2% 47 384 460 3 68%
80-K.McCardell WAS 88 79 24.0% 20.5% 31 256 324 1 71%
82-R.Martin GB 88 95 22.2% 25.3% 28 242 334 4 57%
81-J.Avant PHI 85 74 20.1% 15.8% 33 267 338 2 70%
83-G.Lewis PHI 85 91 31.8% 34.9% 23 265 282 3 57%
19-D.Henderson NO 78 66 9.7% 6.4% 43 409 399 3 47%
83-G.Camarillo MIA 72 76 82.1% 87.4% 10 160 168 2 80%
17-S.Hurd DAL 64 61 9.0% 8.1% 37 314 333 1 51%
18-S.Parker KC 62 68 6.9% 8.8% 39 272 350 2 62%
15-C.Henry CIN 56 65 5.9% 8.9% 38 343 327 2 55%
81-D.Darling BAL 53 59 4.3% 6.4% 39 326 331 3 46%
16-G.Holt CIN 46 51 9.3% 11.8% 23 143 238 1 70%
Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
17-T.Walters DET 44 40 42.1% 36.8% 10 101 131 1 90%
19-M.Austin DAL 44 37 34.0% 26.5% 10 76 140 0 50%
89-D.Anderson HOU 43 42 18.8% 18.2% 17 131 175 1 71%
88-M.Harrison IND 40 36 2.3% 1.0% 32 247 275 1 63%
84-C.Davis SD 35 32 -0.3% -1.1% 34 188 278 1 59%
10-B.Middleton DET 34 33 27.7% 26.5% 10 70 117 1 80%
80-C.Wilson PIT 33 41 1.9% 5.6% 30 207 232 1 60%
18-T.Copper NO 27 26 4.2% 3.4% 21 126 173 2 71%
81-B.Jones TEN 24 19 -4.0% -6.0% 34 248 261 2 62%
86-R.Caldwell WAS 22 17 -0.7% -3.3% 22 141 181 0 68%
85-M.Stovall TB 20 21 7.6% 8.9% 13 86 111 1 77%
17-G.Martinez DEN 19 12 -2.0% -5.7% 24 165 170 0 58%
84-H.Baskett PHI 17 6 -2.5% -8.8% 22 142 158 1 73%
Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
83-J.Thrash WAS 13 17 -3.5% -0.8% 18 107 139 2 50%
80-M.Floyd SD 9 10 -3.8% -1.8% 13 97 91 1 54%
17-T.Dwight OAK 7 10 -6.1% -3.2% 15 98 100 2 40%
15-M.Hagans STL 5 7 -8.2% -6.2% 15 101 100 0 53%
15-J.Broussard JAC 5 9 -7.7% -3.6% 12 126 84 1 33%
15-W.Wright NYJ 4 4 -7.7% -7.7% 11 87 74 0 55%
83-A.Chatman CIN 2 6 -11.9% -10.2% 29 149 191 1 66%
12-S.Smith NYG -4 -14 -15.8% -24.4% 14 63 90 0 57%
81-P.Price BUF -4 -10 -16.5% -21.9% 13 68 82 0 54%
80-M.Clayton TB -5 -3 -14.3% -13.8% 40 301 241 0 55%
15-S.Breaston ARI -8 -9 -19.4% -20.9% 14 92 80 0 57%
81-K.Robinson GB -8 4 -15.7% -11.3% 34 241 202 1 62%
12-J.Jones HOU -12 -18 -19.0% -21.8% 24 147 138 0 63%
Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
87-S.Morey ARI -15 -16 -24.4% -25.6% 17 131 80 0 47%
80-D.Aromashodu IND -15 -12 -24.0% -21.7% 17 96 84 0 41%
40-L.Naanee SD -17 -12 -30.1% -24.5% 13 69 55 0 62%
81-B.Gilmore SF -18 -12 -25.3% -20.7% 19 111 90 0 37%
86-T.Carter CLE -19 -17 -23.7% -22.5% 22 117 113 2 36%
82-T.Williamson MIN -21 -25 -19.5% -20.8% 38 236 218 1 47%
81-R.Davis CHI -26 -31 -24.1% -26.0% 31 165 148 0 55%
23-D.Hester CHI -27 -27 -21.1% -21.3% 39 299 217 2 51%
15-C.Thorpe IND -28 -30 -30.3% -31.9% 20 70 87 1 60%
87-B.Obomanu SEA -30 -20 -25.5% -21.1% 29 180 144 1 41%
84-A.Allison MIN -33 -35 -35.6% -37.7% 18 113 67 0 44%
89-D.Looker STL -33 -39 -42.7% -48.0% 14 38 41 1 43%
80-D.Jarrett CAR -34 -29 -49.6% -43.6% 13 73 25 0 46%
Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
82-D.Hall STL -37 -38 -55.1% -56.4% 12 27 16 0 42%
83-S.Moss NYG -39 -47 -26.2% -28.9% 37 225 177 0 57%
81-J.McCareins NYJ -42 -67 -23.6% -29.9% 46 232 252 0 41%
16-M.Bradley CHI -45 -33 -44.9% -36.5% 17 71 47 1 35%
87-E.Kennison KC -49 -58 -36.8% -41.6% 26 101 92 0 50%
85-A.Moorehead IND -54 -66 -44.7% -51.6% 22 65 58 0 36%
85-B.Lloyd WAS -59 -54 -85.3% -79.1% 11 14 -21 0 18%
87-D.Williams BAL -63 -47 -28.9% -24.9% 47 290 221 0 43%
18-M.Williams OAK -79 -82 -62.7% -64.4% 23 90 12 0 30%
18-A.Lelie SF -82 -74 -52.7% -48.6% 26 115 46 0 38%

RUSHING BY WIDE RECEIVERS: Minimum 5 carries

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Rk Runs Yards True
Yards		 Rk TD FUM
15-B.Marshall DEN 48 1 46 2 124.0% 1 114.8% 1 5 57 115 1 0 0
89-S.Smith CAR 44