Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics


2008 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 12/29/2008

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2008, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

WEIGHTED DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team is playing right now.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
YEAR 		WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
1 PHI 31.7% 11 30.5% 2 9-6-1 9.3% 12 -20.7% 3 1.6% 13
2 BAL 30.3% 22 29.7% 3 11-5 5.6% 18 -24.5% 2 0.2% 17
3 NYG 29.4% 15 23.8% 5 12-4 23.4% 2 -4.0% 8 2.0% 11
4 PIT 27.0% 8 30.8% 1 12-4 1.7% 20 -26.4% 1 -1.1% 23
5 TEN 27.0% 10 24.4% 4 13-3 8.8% 14 -16.9% 5 1.3% 15
6 CAR 19.8% 27 21.9% 7 12-4 18.6% 6 1.3% 10 2.5% 10
7 IND 15.4% 2 22.6% 6 12-4 21.3% 4 3.7% 14 -2.2% 26
8 SD 12.3% 6 14.7% 10 8-8 21.3% 3 10.7% 22 1.7% 12
9 NO 11.5% 21 16.7% 9 8-8 23.7% 1 11.6% 24 -0.6% 22
10 MIA 9.2% 29 7.5% 13 11-5 17.1% 7 3.0% 13 -4.9% 29
11 NE 9.2% 1 17.5% 8 11-5 14.6% 9 8.9% 20 3.5% 6
12 ATL 8.4% 28 9.8% 11 11-5 16.5% 8 11.4% 23 3.3% 7
13 TB 7.7% 7 2.4% 17 9-7 0.3% 21 -7.6% 6 -0.3% 19
14 MIN 6.8% 14 5.3% 14 10-6 -4.9% 23 -18.2% 4 -6.5% 32
15 DAL 6.3% 3 8.8% 12 9-7 8.5% 16 -0.7% 9 -2.9% 27
16 GB 6.2% 5 3.7% 15 6-10 9.2% 13 2.7% 12 -0.3% 20
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
YEAR 		WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
17 CHI 5.2% 20 -0.7% 18 9-7 -4.3% 22 -5.5% 7 4.1% 5
18 WAS 4.6% 12 -4.4% 20 8-8 8.5% 15 1.9% 11 -2.1% 25
19 NYJ 2.2% 25 2.6% 16 9-7 3.2% 19 3.9% 16 2.8% 8
20 ARI -0.5% 23 -7.9% 21 9-7 11.9% 10 9.3% 21 -3.1% 28
21 HOU -7.2% 17 -2.5% 19 8-8 11.4% 11 19.1% 29 0.5% 16
22 JAC -8.5% 4 -10.5% 22 5-11 7.0% 17 15.0% 26 -0.5% 21
23 DEN -11.0% 18 -19.2% 26 8-8 21.0% 5 26.2% 31 -5.8% 31
24 BUF -13.6% 19 -18.4% 24 7-9 -6.2% 24 13.5% 25 6.0% 1
25 SF -18.8% 32 -23.1% 29 7-9 -14.6% 27 8.8% 19 4.6% 3
26 OAK -20.5% 30 -20.6% 28 5-11 -17.7% 31 8.6% 18 5.8% 2
27 CIN -21.2% 16 -14.4% 23 4-11-1 -15.4% 29 3.7% 15 -2.1% 24
28 CLE -21.6% 13 -25.0% 30 4-12 -17.5% 30 8.4% 17 4.3% 4
29 SEA -23.0% 9 -18.7% 25 4-12 -9.5% 26 16.3% 27 2.8% 9
30 KC -29.6% 26 -19.3% 27 2-14 -6.3% 25 17.5% 28 -5.7% 30
31 STL -42.1% 31 -35.0% 31 2-14 -18.6% 32 23.3% 30 -0.2% 18
32 DET -47.3% 24 -42.1% 32 0-16 -15.3% 28 33.3% 32 1.4% 14
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA gives performance without adjustments for schedule strength, fumble recovery luck, and weather/altitude on special teams.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close.  It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent the number of wins projected from the team's points scored and allowed, as described in this article.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance, Washington) to least consistent (#32, highest variance, Oakland).
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK 2008
SCHED 		RANK PYTH
WINS 		RANK VAR RANK
1 PHI 31.7% 9-6-1 29.5% 11.4 4 1.5% 13 11.3 5 13.7% 10
2 BAL 30.3% 11-5 29.3% 11.8 1 3.5% 6 11.9 2 16.1% 15
3 NYG 29.4% 12-4 27.5% 11.6 2 2.6% 8 11.3 4 21.7% 27
4 PIT 27.0% 12-4 22.2% 11.1 5 5.9% 4 11.8 3 12.0% 5
5 TEN 27.0% 13-3 27.2% 11.5 3 -2.7% 25 12.1 1 12.9% 7
6 CAR 19.8% 12-4 18.8% 10.2 7 0.4% 17 10.1 9 14.3% 11
7 IND 15.4% 12-4 16.5% 10.4 6 1.8% 11 10.2 8 21.2% 25
8 SD 12.3% 8-8 14.1% 9.9 8 -1.6% 23 10.2 7 20.2% 22
9 NO 11.5% 8-8 12.3% 9.6 9 -1.3% 22 9.5 11 13.0% 8
10 MIA 9.2% 11-5 21.1% 9.2 10 -7.2% 30 8.8 16 16.6% 17
11 NE 9.2% 11-5 12.5% 9.0 13 -6.0% 29 10.6 6 28.7% 30
12 ATL 8.4% 11-5 8.8% 9.0 12 -0.6% 19 9.7 10 21.0% 24
13 TB 7.7% 9-7 8.8% 8.4 16 -0.9% 21 9.0 14 19.0% 21
14 MIN 6.8% 10-6 3.5% 8.5 15 2.0% 9 9.2 12 15.4% 14
15 DAL 6.3% 9-7 2.9% 8.4 17 4.7% 5 7.9 19 28.6% 29
16 GB 6.2% 6-10 6.1% 8.4 18 -0.8% 20 8.9 15 15.0% 13
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK 2008
SCHED 		RANK PYTH
WINS 		RANK VAR RANK
17 CHI 5.2% 9-7 3.8% 9.0 11 -0.3% 18 8.7 17 10.4% 4
18 WAS 4.6% 8-8 -0.2% 8.3 19 1.8% 12 7.0 22 5.5% 1
19 NYJ 2.2% 9-7 9.3% 8.5 14 -7.4% 31 9.2 13 16.8% 18
20 ARI -0.5% 9-7 2.6% 7.8 20 -3.9% 27 8.0 18 29.1% 31
21 HOU -7.2% 8-8 -11.0% 6.5 22 2.6% 7 7.3 21 13.3% 9
22 JAC -8.5% 5-11 -9.6% 7.6 21 1.9% 10 6.2 25 7.9% 3
23 DEN -11.0% 8-8 -9.9% 6.5 23 -3.2% 26 6.2 24 21.4% 26
24 BUF -13.6% 7-9 -7.6% 6.3 24 -7.6% 32 7.8 20 12.7% 6
25 SF -18.8% 7-9 -12.1% 6.3 25 -5.5% 28 6.9 23 7.2% 2
26 OAK -20.5% 5-11 -21.7% 5.4 27 1.3% 15 4.6 27 31.1% 32
27 CIN -21.2% 4-11-1 -28.4% 5.0 29 8.9% 2 3.2 30 17.4% 19
28 CLE -21.6% 4-12 -29.5% 5.9 26 9.1% 1 4.4 28 20.2% 23
29 SEA -23.0% 4-12 -21.0% 5.3 28 -1.9% 24 5.4 26 17.7% 20
30 KC -29.6% 2-14 -29.1% 4.3 30 1.4% 14 4.4 29 15.0% 12
31 STL -42.1% 2-14 -40.6% 2.7 31 0.5% 16 2.6 32 24.4% 28
32 DET -47.3% 0-16 -49.2% 2.5 32 6.0% 3 2.8 31 16.4% 16

DVOA version: 5.0