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KUBIAK UPDATE
7/22: Adds 2007 red zone target and carry data, solves error in IDP formula for top three linebackers
7/21: Changes DAL RB
Adjusts for Taylor and Shockey trades
7/19: JAC WR, CLE WR
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Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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Baseball Prospectus Basketball Prospectus

TIGHT ENDS 2007

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 7/11/2008

Tight ends are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this TE caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level TE in the same game situations and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average TE in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

True Yards, listed in red, translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more True Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer True Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate. True Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR.

DYAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both complete and incomplete. Catch Rate represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for this.

  • We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
  • These statistics measure only passes thrown to the tight end, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.
  • All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.
  • Please note that due to his usage patterns, we list Dallas Clark of Indianapolis as a wide receiver.

The simple version: DYAR means a tight end with more total value. DVOA means a tight end with more value per play.

RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 43 players ranked

Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
85-A.Gates SD 278 1 266 1 30.0% 4 28.3% 117 984 1,233 9 64%
82-J.Witten DAL 256 2 230 2 21.1% 9 18.3% 141 1,145 1,316 8 68%
88-T.Gonzalez KC 206 3 208 3 14.1% 12 14.4% 154 1,172 1,260 6 64%
83-H.Miller PIT 194 4 201 4 38.9% 1 40.5% 61 566 777 7 77%
86-D.Lee GB 164 5 168 5 30.2% 3 31.2% 63 575 725 6 76%
88-T.Scheffler DEN 149 6 145 6 26.1% 5 25.3% 65 549 698 5 75%
81-O.Daniels HOU 127 7 118 7 12.7% 13 11.3% 94 773 812 3 67%
47-C.Cooley WAS 121 8 114 8 9.4% 14 8.5% 110 786 871 8 60%
84-B.Watson NE 104 9 101 10 23.0% 7 22.3% 49 389 514 6 73%
86-B.Utecht IND 100 10 103 9 33.6% 2 34.5% 37 364 425 1 84%
88-D.Clark CHI 99 11 92 11 16.1% 11 14.5% 66 545 571 4 67%
88-M.Pollard SEA 82 12 76 14 25.8% 6 23.3% 35 273 385 2 80%
83-B.Miller NO 79 13 85 12 21.8% 8 23.7% 38 328 403 2 71%
80-K.Winslow CLE 75 14 85 13 0.5% 23 1.5% 148 1,111 974 5 55%
84-R.McMichael STL 72 15 63 16 8.9% 16 6.8% 67 429 532 4 58%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
86-C.Baker NYJ 69 16 62 17 9.0% 15 7.2% 61 409 509 3 67%
80-J.Shockey NYG 63 17 63 15 3.0% 21 2.9% 93 619 657 6 61%
89-D.Graham DEN 54 18 50 18 16.3% 10 14.3% 33 246 312 2 73%
83-A.Crumpler ATL 35 19 37 19 0.4% 24 0.9% 70 444 456 5 60%
81-A.Smith TB 34 20 34 20 2.3% 22 2.3% 53 385 370 3 60%
86-M.Gaines BUF 32 21 33 22 5.9% 18 6.4% 35 215 270 2 71%
89-M.Lewis JAC 28 22 23 24 0.0% 25 -1.5% 57 391 392 2 65%
82-L.Pope ARI 26 23 27 23 3.6% 19 4.0% 34 238 256 5 68%
86-T.Heap BAL 25 24 33 21 3.2% 20 6.3% 34 239 259 1 68%
82-R.Kelly CIN 25 25 22 25 8.5% 17 6.7% 27 211 190 0 74%
82-E.Johnson NO 18 26 7 28 -3.2% 27 -5.6% 63 380 407 2 76%
49-S.McHugh DET 10 27 9 27 -2.6% 26 -2.9% 29 252 201 0 59%
80-Z.Miller OAK 5 28 13 26 -6.1% 29 -4.3% 69 444 388 3 64%
81-V.Shiancoe MIN 3 29 0 30 -6.0% 28 -7.2% 43 324 243 1 63%
88-D.Martin MIA -7 30 -8 32 -9.3% 31 -9.6% 50 303 266 2 68%
Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
85-V.Davis SF -7 31 6 29 -8.6% 30 -6.3% 85 509 454 4 61%
81-B.Fletcher IND -8 32 -5 31 -12.0% 33 -9.8% 27 143 131 0 67%
82-G.Olsen CHI -9 33 -18 33 -9.4% 32 -11.6% 66 391 341 2 59%
87-G.Wrighster JAC -15 34 -20 34 -15.8% 35 -18.5% 24 123 118 1 71%
84-R.Royal BUF -18 35 -21 35 -14.7% 34 -15.8% 38 249 169 3 66%
88-B.Franks GB -24 36 -29 36 -18.2% 36 -20.2% 32 132 134 3 56%
85-W.Heller SEA -36 37 -34 37 -26.7% 42 -25.5% 26 82 77 3 50%
87-J.Peelle MIA -40 38 -40 38 -19.7% 37 -19.8% 47 228 183 2 62%
82-L.Smith PHI -52 39 -53 40 -24.2% 40 -24.5% 44 236 146 1 50%
88-Q.Sypniewski BAL -63 40 -51 39 -25.3% 41 -21.9% 52 246 155 1 65%
87-J.King CAR -68 41 -76 42 -20.1% 38 -21.4% 80 406 300 2 58%
80-B.Scaife TEN -80 42 -69 41 -22.8% 39 -20.5% 78 421 260 1 59%
46-D.Walker SF -90 43 -86 43 -39.4% 43 -38.2% 42 174 39 1 50%

RECEIVING, OTHERS: 10-24 passes

Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
86-J.Stevens TB 88 87 53.5% 52.7% 21 189 315 4 86%
89-K.Boss NYG 48 47 43.9% 43.7% 14 118 182 2 64%
87-B.Celek PHI 45 45 23.3% 23.4% 22 178 220 1 73%
86-D.Coats CIN 39 37 33.8% 30.8% 16 122 167 0 75%
82-C.Fitzsimmons DET 34 35 39.5% 41.0% 10 85 135 1 80%
83-G.Estandia JAC 24 18 16.5% 10.5% 16 136 136 0 56%
85-J.Madsen OAK 22 24 20.2% 22.2% 12 102 117 1 67%
87-T.Yoder WAS 21 21 20.9% 21.5% 12 97 107 1 58%
89-B.Patrick ARI 15 21 8.9% 15.3% 12 73 112 2 58%
80-A.Fasano DAL 7 3 -2.5% -5.1% 21 143 137 1 67%
Player Team DYAR YAR DVOA VOA Passes Yards True
Yards		 TD Catch
Rate
88-B.Hartsock TEN 0 1 -7.5% -6.6% 19 138 116 0 63%
86-B.Manumaleuna SD -2 0 -9.0% -7.7% 15 86 82 1 67%
88-K.Brady NE -2 -3 -8.8% -10.1% 16 70 93 2 56%
88-J.Putzier HOU -2 -3 -10.5% -12.6% 10 39 50 1 60%
83-T.Bienemann ARI -8 -6 -17.2% -15.2% 11 46 49 1 64%
89-M.Schobel PHI -11 -11 -14.5% -14.4% 21 108 104 1 52%
40-J.Kleinsasser MIN -11 -9 -23.5% -20.6% 10 43 34 1 40%
82-S.Heiden CLE -35 -36 -34.1% -34.6% 21 104 33 0 57%
83-D.Wilcox BAL -43 -45 -59.8% -62.4% 11 18 -25 1 55%
88-M.Matthews NYG -47 -53 -60.8% -67.1% 13 28 -29 0 46%

Any tight end rushing numbers are listed on the wide receiver page for that particular year.