Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

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2011 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

through games of 1/9/12

Special Teams F/+ has been added to the overall F/+ formula. It is a direct offshoot of the Special Teams Efficiency rating found on the FEI page. To read about the rationale behind this adjustment, go here.

Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.


F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
1 Alabama 12-1 35.8% 13.7% 7 22.4% 1 -0.4% 72
2 LSU 13-1 34.1% 13.7% 6 17.8% 2 2.5% 6
3 Oklahoma State 12-1 27.4% 13.8% 5 11.6% 3 2.0% 7
4 Boise State 12-1 26.9% 13.1% 9 10.5% 5 3.3% 1
5 Oregon 12-2 23.8% 13.9% 4 9.1% 10 0.8% 39
6 Wisconsin 11-3 22.3% 19.1% 1 2.3% 43 0.8% 40
7 Oklahoma 10-3 21.9% 11.2% 11 10.0% 7 0.8% 43
8 Florida State 9-4 18.4% 4.9% 32 10.3% 6 3.1% 2
9 Stanford 11-2 17.7% 14.1% 3 3.6% 32 -0.1% 63
10 Michigan State 11-3 16.8% 7.4% 21 8.0% 12 1.4% 19
11 USC 10-2 16.2% 12.7% 10 2.2% 45 1.2% 23
12 Michigan 11-2 16.0% 10.6% 14 4.9% 24 0.4% 50
13 Notre Dame 8-5 15.5% 7.3% 22 7.8% 14 0.4% 53
14 Arkansas 11-2 15.0% 10.9% 12 2.3% 44 1.8% 9
15 Georgia 10-4 14.9% 8.4% 18 6.9% 17 -0.4% 76
16 Texas A&M 7-6 14.5% 8.6% 17 5.4% 21 0.5% 48
17 TCU 11-2 14.2% 9.1% 16 3.9% 31 1.2% 22
18 Houston 13-1 12.4% 13.5% 8 -0.6% 60 -0.5% 78
19 Texas 8-5 12.1% -0.5% 62 11.0% 4 1.6% 15
20 Southern Miss 12-2 11.4% 3.1% 42 6.9% 16 1.4% 20
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
21 South Carolina 11-2 11.1% 5.9% 24 8.0% 13 -2.8% 112
22 Virginia Tech 11-3 11.1% 5.8% 26 5.5% 20 -0.2% 68
23 West Virginia 10-3 10.6% 10.9% 13 0.6% 53 -1.0% 83
24 Temple 9-4 10.3% 3.1% 43 4.6% 26 2.6% 5
25 Missouri 8-5 10.2% 8.1% 19 1.9% 47 0.3% 56
26 Nebraska 9-4 10.1% 5.4% 29 3.1% 39 1.7% 14
27 Cincinnati 10-3 9.6% 5.3% 30 2.8% 41 1.4% 18
28 Toledo 9-4 8.8% 5.9% 25 2.9% 40 0.1% 60
29 Baylor 10-3 8.4% 14.9% 2 -4.3% 92 -2.2% 105
30 Florida 7-6 7.8% -0.5% 65 5.4% 22 2.9% 4
31 Penn State 9-4 7.5% -2.4% 76 10.0% 8 -0.1% 66
32 Miami 6-6 7.4% 9.9% 15 -3.6% 87 1.1% 29
33 Kansas State 10-3 7.3% 5.1% 31 1.1% 50 1.1% 28
34 Rutgers 9-4 7.2% 1.6% 50 3.9% 30 1.7% 12
35 Tulsa 8-5 6.8% 2.9% 44 3.5% 35 0.5% 49
36 Clemson 10-4 6.3% 7.7% 20 -2.3% 76 0.9% 37
37 BYU 10-3 6.3% 1.4% 51 3.6% 34 1.4% 21
38 Ohio State 6-7 5.9% -0.5% 64 5.4% 23 1.0% 33
39 Louisiana Tech 8-5 5.5% -1.2% 70 5.7% 18 1.0% 31
40 South Florida 5-7 5.4% 1.7% 49 4.9% 25 -1.1% 86
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
41 Arizona State 6-7 5.2% 4.3% 34 -0.1% 58 1.0% 32
42 Iowa 7-6 5.1% 4.0% 37 1.0% 51 0.1% 58
43 Mississippi State 7-6 5.1% -1.3% 71 5.6% 19 0.8% 42
44 Louisville 7-6 4.7% 3.4% 41 0.4% 55 0.9% 34
45 California 7-6 4.7% 0.8% 55 3.6% 33 0.3% 57
46 Vanderbilt 6-7 4.4% 0.7% 58 4.1% 28 -0.4% 73
47 Pittsburgh 6-7 4.3% -1.0% 66 4.2% 27 1.1% 26
48 Georgia Tech 8-5 3.9% 6.9% 23 -1.1% 62 -1.9% 100
49 North Carolina 7-6 3.7% 4.7% 33 0.2% 56 -1.2% 89
50 Northern Illinois 11-3 3.0% 5.8% 27 -2.5% 78 -0.3% 71
51 Western Michigan 7-6 2.8% 4.1% 35 -3.3% 85 2.0% 8
52 Auburn 8-5 2.5% 0.7% 57 -1.1% 66 2.9% 3
53 Central Florida 5-7 2.5% 0.9% 54 1.6% 49 -0.1% 62
54 Utah 8-5 2.4% -7.0% 93 8.3% 11 1.1% 25
55 SMU 8-5 1.8% -1.4% 72 3.9% 29 -0.7% 81
56 Ohio 10-4 1.8% 2.7% 45 -1.9% 71 0.9% 36
57 Tennessee 5-7 1.0% 0.6% 60 2.2% 46 -1.7% 96
58 Arkansas State 10-3 0.8% -3.6% 79 3.5% 36 0.8% 38
59 Northwestern 6-7 0.6% 5.5% 28 -4.7% 94 -0.2% 69
60 Florida International 8-5 0.0% -4.9% 87 3.2% 38 1.7% 11
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
61 Connecticut 5-7 -0.1% -4.6% 83 3.3% 37 1.1% 24
62 Illinois 7-6 -0.1% -7.3% 99 9.4% 9 -2.2% 106
63 Nevada 7-6 -0.8% 2.5% 46 -0.5% 59 -2.8% 113
64 Washington 7-6 -1.0% 3.9% 38 -6.1% 104 1.1% 27
65 Virginia 8-5 -1.4% 0.6% 59 0.0% 57 -2.1% 104
66 Wake Forest 6-7 -1.6% 2.4% 47 -3.5% 86 -0.5% 79
67 N.C. State 8-5 -2.6% 0.8% 56 -2.1% 73 -1.3% 92
68 San Diego State 8-5 -2.9% -1.5% 73 -1.1% 63 -0.3% 70
69 Boston College 4-8 -3.0% -5.2% 89 1.8% 48 0.4% 54
70 Utah State 7-6 -3.1% 3.5% 40 -3.0% 81 -3.6% 119
71 Syracuse 5-7 -3.5% -1.1% 68 -1.2% 67 -1.2% 90
72 Iowa State 6-7 -3.9% -4.5% 82 0.7% 52 -0.1% 64
73 Purdue 7-6 -4.6% -4.7% 84 -1.7% 69 1.8% 10
74 Hawaii 6-7 -4.6% -2.9% 77 -2.7% 80 1.0% 30
75 Bowling Green 5-7 -4.7% -2.2% 75 -3.1% 84 0.6% 47
76 Texas Tech 5-7 -4.7% 1.9% 48 -6.6% 106 0.0% 61
77 Duke 3-9 -5.2% 0.3% 61 -6.3% 105 0.8% 41
78 UL-Lafayette 9-4 -5.5% -1.1% 67 -4.2% 90 -0.1% 65
79 Arizona 4-8 -5.5% 3.8% 39 -6.9% 108 -2.4% 109
80 Air Force 7-6 -5.7% 1.1% 53 -5.5% 99 -1.3% 91
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
81 Navy 5-7 -5.8% 4.1% 36 -8.3% 116 -1.5% 95
82 Miami (Ohio) 4-8 -6.5% -1.9% 74 -2.2% 74 -2.4% 108
83 UCLA 6-8 -6.7% -1.2% 69 -4.4% 93 -1.2% 87
84 Western Kentucky 7-5 -7.0% -6.5% 91 -1.1% 65 0.6% 45
85 San Jose State 5-7 -7.1% -7.5% 102 -1.1% 64 1.6% 16
86 Oregon State 3-9 -7.4% -7.0% 94 -1.0% 61 0.6% 46
87 Marshall 7-6 -7.9% -5.9% 90 -1.5% 68 -0.5% 77
88 Fresno State 4-9 -8.5% 1.1% 52 -7.6% 113 -2.0% 101
89 Kentucky 5-7 -8.9% -11.8% 110 2.8% 42 0.1% 59
90 East Carolina 5-7 -8.9% -4.1% 81 -3.6% 88 -1.2% 88
91 UTEP 5-7 -9.0% -4.0% 80 -5.5% 98 0.4% 51
92 Kent State 5-7 -9.4% -17.3% 117 7.5% 15 0.4% 52
93 Ball State 6-6 -9.4% -4.8% 86 -5.2% 97 0.7% 44
94 UL-Monroe 4-8 -9.7% -4.8% 85 -1.8% 70 -3.2% 117
95 Ole Miss 2-10 -9.9% -12.2% 111 0.6% 54 1.7% 13
96 Maryland 2-10 -10.2% -5.2% 88 -3.0% 82 -2.0% 102
97 Eastern Michigan 6-6 -10.4% -8.2% 104 -2.1% 72 -0.2% 67
98 Rice 4-8 -10.8% -9.6% 106 -2.7% 79 1.4% 17
99 Minnesota 3-9 -11.0% -7.0% 95 -4.9% 95 0.9% 35
100 Washington State 4-8 -12.1% -0.5% 63 -9.3% 118 -2.3% 107
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+		 Rk Def
F/+		 Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+		 Rk
101 Central Michigan 3-9 -12.4% -3.5% 78 -7.9% 115 -1.0% 84
102 North Texas 5-7 -13.6% -10.9% 109 -3.1% 83 0.3% 55
103 Wyoming 8-5 -13.7% -6.8% 92 -5.1% 96 -1.8% 97
104 Buffalo 3-9 -13.7% -7.4% 100 -4.3% 91 -2.1% 103
105 Colorado State 3-9 -15.4% -10.4% 108 -4.2% 89 -0.9% 82
106 Army 3-9 -15.9% -7.0% 96 -5.6% 101 -3.3% 118
107 Troy 3-9 -16.2% -9.2% 105 -5.6% 100 -1.4% 94
108 Colorado 3-10 -17.1% -7.1% 97 -7.1% 110 -2.9% 115
109 New Mexico State 4-9 -17.2% -7.2% 98 -7.1% 111 -2.9% 114
110 Idaho 2-10 -17.4% -14.5% 114 -2.3% 75 -0.6% 80
111 UAB 3-9 -18.0% -7.4% 101 -10.2% 119 -0.4% 74
112 Indiana 1-11 -18.3% -8.2% 103 -9.1% 117 -1.1% 85
113 Kansas 2-10 -19.8% -10.1% 107 -7.0% 109 -2.7% 111
114 Tulane 2-11 -20.9% -12.5% 113 -5.9% 102 -2.5% 110
115 Middle Tennessee 2-10 -21.9% -12.2% 112 -7.8% 114 -1.9% 99
116 UNLV 2-10 -23.5% -16.3% 116 -6.8% 107 -0.4% 75
117 Memphis 2-10 -24.1% -15.3% 115 -7.4% 112 -1.4% 93
118 Florida Atlantic 1-11 -24.6% -19.0% 119 -2.5% 77 -3.1% 116
119 Akron 1-11 -27.5% -19.8% 120 -5.9% 103 -1.8% 97
120 New Mexico 1-11 -35.5% -18.9% 118 -11.3% 120 -5.3% 120