KUBIAK UPDATE
7/22: Adds 2007 red zone target and carry data, solves error in IDP formula for top three linebackers
7/21: Changes DAL RB
Adjusts for Taylor and Shockey trades
7/19: JAC WR, CLE WR
Download here.
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MEET THE OUTSIDERS
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EDITOR-IN-CHIEF |
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Compared to Bill James by the New York Times Magazine, AARON SCHATZ is the creator of Football Outsiders and most of
the original statistical methods presented on this website, as well as lead writer on the book Pro Football Prospectus
2007. He also writes for FOXSports.com, ESPN the Magazine, and the New York Sun. Before Football Outsiders, Aaron spent five years on the radio at WBRU Providence and WKRO Daytona Beach, and three years as the writer and producer of the Lycos 50, the Internet's foremost authority on the people, places, and things that are searched online. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio stations including ESPN, CNN, and NPR, and written for a number of publications including The
New Republic, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, The American Prospect,
and the Boston
Phoenix. He lives in Framingham, Massachusetts with his wife and daughter and proudly sports a #93 Richard Seymour jersey on Sundays when he is often told "they can't hear you in Foxboro through the television." |
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CONTRIBUTING EDITORS |
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BILL BARNWELL is FO's first homegrown product and its resident fantasy columnist, writing Scramble for the Ball each week during the season. After starting as an intern for FO in 2005, Bill worked his way up the ranks, writing Scramble with Ian Dembsky in 2006 while seeing his research cited in The Boston Globe and The Wall Street Journal. After graduating from Northeastern University that May and spending a year fumbling through semi-employment, Bill moved to San Francisco, where he currently serves as the Sports Editor for IGN.com. He also contributes weekly to >Patriots Daily and Rotoworld. |
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MIKE TANIER considers himself America's most prolific NFL ghostwriter after four years as the resident draft guru and features writer for Sports Forecaster, which syndicates to over 20 newspaper websites in the US and Canada. (You can read some examples of that work here.)
Mike has also contributed to his hometown Philadelphia Inquirer.
Having grown up just two miles from Veterans Stadium, he took his then-13 month old son C.J. to watch the implosion of that legendary concrete slab, hoping that the event might exorcise some Philly sports demons. So far, the demons are covering the spread. When he's not researching obscure football facts or getting traumatized by the Philadelphia Eagles, Mike teaches high school mathematics in southern New Jersey. But his real passions are, in this order: a) family life, b) trying to get his Strat-o-Matic baseball team over the hump, and c) struggling to keep the characters straight on the PBS import show Age of Warriors. His
weekly assignments include the column Too Deep Zone and the weekly rundown of upcoming NFL games for FOXSports.com. |
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SENIOR WRITERS |
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Web producer RUSSELL LEVINE writes the weekly column Confessions
of a Football Junkie and co-writes the weekly column Seventh Day
Adventure. You will also find his analysis of college football in the pages of the New York Sun. He has spent nearly ten years working in sports media and has written for a number of sports sites. A 1994 graduate of the University of Michigan, he once nearly sacrificed his marriage rather than attend a wedding on the day of the Michigan-Notre Dame game. He's also a long time Tampa Bay Bucs fan and has the James Wilder jersey in the closet to prove it. He lives in West Orange, New Jersey with his wife and kids. |
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Long-suffering Lions fan MICHAEL DAVID SMITH emulated Billy Sims as a toddler, but it wasn't long before he realized his size and
athleticism (or lack thereof) made him a better candidate for writing
about football than playing it. Since then his inspiration has been Sports Illustrated's Paul Zimmerman, who always seems to notice the details that the TV announcers miss. Smith lives in Chicago with his wife, Sarah, a
lawyer with an amazing tolerance for sports blaring on the TV, sports-talk radio blaring in the car, and sports opinions blaring from her husband's mouth. Smith got a Barry Sanders jersey just before Sanders' retirement and a Charlie Batch jersey just before Batch was cut. He now wears a Lions sweatshirt without any player's name on it. Contrary to popular belief, he is not the Michael Smith who used to write for the Boston Globe and now appears on
ESPN, but he is the Michael Smith who appears everywhere else, including in
the New York Sun, on ProFootballTalk.com,
and on AOL
Fanhouse.
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STAFF WRITERS |
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Born in Milan, Italy and reared in Denver, DOUG FARRAR fell in love
with pro football as a wee lad in 1977, when Broncomania filled the mile-high
air, Lyle Alzado was more than a cautionary tale, and Woody Paige wrote books.
Though he once dreamed of returning punts like Rick Upchurch, it was the
allure of the guitar and pen that took Doug through his adolescent years. A
Seattleite since 1985, Doug now holds true allegiance to the Emerald City and
all she possesses, including her ever-beleaguered NFL team. In 2002, he traded
in his home studio for a Frank Deford wannabe license and started writing for Seahawks.NET.
He's currently saving up for a custom Lofa Tatupu jersey
in retro Seahawk colors.
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BRIAN FREMEAU contributes the Fremeau Efficiency Index and other
drive-based college football stats to Football Outsiders. Officially created
in 2002 in an attempt to quantify momentum, FEI's roots actually extend to an
early-90s NCAA hoops tournament forecasting project Brian still hopelessly
maintains today. Now working for his alma mater, the University of Notre Dame,
he spends every home Saturday cheering his beloved Irish from the South end
zone, Touchdown Jesus' outstretched arms in the background signaling into the
blue-gray sky. Like Charlie Weis and Regis Philbin, Brian never played for
Notre Dame, so his eligibility remains intact. He lives in South Bend, IN with
his wife and daughter, who's birthday falls on Heisman weekend. |
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NED MACEY has followed the world of sports from his childhood
home of Indianapolis to Philadelphia, Detroit, Australia, and beyond. Ned
graduated from Haverford College in 2002 following an illustrious
college pitching career where he starred predominantly as a middle
reliever. Now he enters his third year at University of Michigan Law School
where he spends his Saturdays giving spirited defenses of Lloyd Carr. On most Sundays during the season, he can be
found wearing a Marvin Harrison jersey and lamenting the NFL's need to
broadcast Lions games in Michigan while his wife checks to see how many
times her true love Marc Bulger has been sacked. Ned explores the upset of the week in the column Any
Given Sunday.
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BEN RILEY is a San Francisco litigator who spends many of what would
otherwise be billable hours combing "the Internets" for quotes to put
in "This Week in Quotes." Ben is also the creator of a of 32-tab
Excel fantasy football spreadsheet that's been described by FO mastermind
Aaron Schatz as "[EXPLETIVE] INSANE." Ben's spreadsheet and KUBIAK
are currently dating. A diehard Seahawks fan -- yes, there are two on staff --
Ben can be found on Sunday wearing a #8 Matt Hasselbeck jersey that was given
to him by his near-perfect girlfriend Nicki, who's from England, drinks beer,
and loves football as much as Ben does.
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After a failed collegiate career as a mediocre middle
infielder at a mediocre baseball school, RYAN WILSON found it easier to write mean things about people than
to have them written about him. He's a big-time
Steelers fan who was rumored to have given his wife an
autographed picture of Hines Ward as a birthday gift
even though she didn't watch football at the time.
Ryan currently lives in D.C. and when he's not
"working for the man" he has his own
weblog devoted to his
strange combination of favorite teams: the UNC Tarheels,
the Boston Red Sox and the aforementioned Pittsburgh Steelers. He's the main man
behind our Extra Points weblog and also
writes for AOL
Fanhouse.
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ASSISTANT EDITOR (ON LEAVE) |
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In between classes at University of Texas School of Law, TIM GERHEIM fulfills his new role of assistant grand poobah of layout and chief grammar inspector for Football Outsiders. We had to find something for him to do after he wrote the Houston and San Diego chapters in Pro Football Prospectus 2005.
Tim has a master's degree in sport management (also from University of Texas) and
is spending the 2007 season studying at an international law school in Germany.
While Tim is out of the country, longtime FO reader VINCE VERHEI will be
filling in as assistant editor.
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GAME CHARTING COORDINATOR |
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Born a Bostonian, but now a resident of New York City, BILL MOORE is a convertible arbitrageur by day and a
frustrated football statistics data miner by night. His dream is to find the
equation that links football economics and performance. Bill graduated from sports powerhouse Babson College, which, like Ned Macey's alma mater Haverford, is undefeated in football. Suddenly finding
himself with plenty of free time last spring when his company closed, Bill
helped organize data for the player comments in our book Pro Football Prospectus 2005. He currently coordinates our newly developed Game Charting Project. On Sundays, Bill can be found wearing his #54 Tedy
Bruschi jersey and hoping one of his two daughters will don their
out-dated Bledsoe jerseys and join him. Although his probation period of
now 10 years is clean, his wife has still not completely forgiven him for
kicking a hole in their couch during the 1996 Super Bowl. |
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TECHNICAL DIRECTOR |
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Atlanta-based creative director BENJY ROSE is somehow fitting in the time to design and develop Football Outsiders between his regular responsibilities as proprietor of design agency B:COMPLEX Creative, keyboardist for a classic/modern rock band, and his responsibilities as dad to two kids and ignorer of two dogs. Benjy is a rabid Jets fan, and is extremely proud that Abby learned her J-E-T-Ss just after her ABCs. He digs his bandwagon-jumping #10 Chad Pennington jersey
-- complete with authentic right shoulder tear -- but longs for a #24 Freeman McNeil or #85 Wesley Walker
kelly green classic. |
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WEBSITE DESIGN AND PROGRAMMING |
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As a one-time minor league trainer in the Florida Marlins system, PAT LAVERTY can actually explain the difference between an anterior cruciate ligament, a posterior cruciate ligament, and that other cruciate ligament, you know, the one that starts with "M." Now he works in the computer department at Brown University right across the street from Peter King's favorite Starbucks! His responsibilities at Football Outsiders include programming
the new Premium DVOA Database as well as most of our contest code. Pat's jersey of choice is the classic Chicago Bears #9 Jim McMahon. |
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SEAN McCALL works on the Premium DVOA Database and is the mastermind
behind the customizable KUBIAK spreadsheet. Further bio to come. |
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STAFF CARTOONIST |
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Web designer and freelance cartoonist JASON BEATTIE awaits
the return of the XFL so that he can repeat as XFL fantasy football champion.
Let's be honest: an ability to differentiate between Rashaan Salaam and
Rashaan Sheehee is impressive. Jason lives with his wife Tara in Thornton, Colorado,
and sports
a #30 Terrell Davis jersey on game day, though he dreams of someday being able
to afford a more
modern Cecil Sapp model.
He was one of the world's greatest Simpsons
experts even before Max Scorpio bought the Denver Broncos for Homer.
He is responsible for all of the caricatures of the Outsiders on the site,
as well as the weekly cartoon that shows up in Scramble for the Ball. You can see more of his cartooning at his Jason's
Comic World website or follow his inane ramblings about Gil Thorp at his
blog, This Week in
Milford. |
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PRO FOOTBALL PROSPECTUS ONLY |
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He's better known as an award-winning baseball columnist, but like Bo Jackson, WILL CARROLL
chose to apply his talents to the gridiron game as well. His weekly football
injury column began as The Black and Blue Report for Football
Outsiders back in 2005. He now writes about football for SI.com and
Rotowire.com -- and, of course, he still writes his Under the Knife column
daily for our buddies at Baseball Prospectus. Never far from our minds (or our staff e-mail discussions), you'll
still find his comments each week in Audibles at the Line, and he
contributed injury research and commentary to Pro Football Prospectus 2007,
just like he did for PFP 2005 and PFP 2006. |
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Lacking any geographical attachment to an NFL team, Briton STUART FRASER
decided to support the Pittsburgh Steelers after they won the first game NFL
game he ever watched. His real initiation into the sport came with being traumatized
traumatised by Neil O'Donnell in Superbowl XXX, though these days he claims
the wounds were healed by watching Antwaan Randle El's touchdown pass ten
years later. When he's not battling against the five hour time zone difference
between the East Coast and his home in Cambridge, UK, Stuart is studying for a
Ph.D. in materials science, trying to break into the university target archery
team, or attempting to perfect his left arm over-the-wicket bowling action, an
aspiration that will make sense only to those who follow his other favorite
favourite sport, cricket. |
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DAVID LEWIN is originally from Wayland, Massachusetts, but he now
lives in St. Paul, Minnesota, where he attends (and plays football for)
Macalester College. Lewin is the creator of the Lewin Career Forecast, our
system for projecting the success of rookie quarterbacks. He has also written
for 82games.com and spent
this past summer as a statistical analyst for an NBA franchise. |
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SEAN McCORMICK is a San Francisco based writer. When not writing for Pro
Football Prospectus or covering local sports for the San Francisco
Examiner, he can be seen wandering the streets of the city as he ponders
how the Jets will screw up their draft. He is the proud owner of the lone
Richard Todd jersey still in existence. |
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ADDITIONAL THANKS
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| Drive stats provided by Jim Armstrong |
| Adjusted Line Yards and Win Projection System developed in conjunction with Dr. Benjamin Alamar |
| Interns: Dan Haverkamp, Derek Marr |
| Additional programming on statistical tools: John Argentiero, Chris Povirk, Dennis Doughty, Evan Davidson, Eliot Horowitz |
| Additional programming on website design: Elias Holman, Bob Sawyer, Owen Winkler |
| Former regular contributors: Al Bogdan, Alex Carnevale, Ian Dembsky, Vin Gauri, Vivek Ramgopal, Fritz Holznagel, Bruce Allen |
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