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02 Sep 2010
My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
In my league's scoring system, I have tracked the performance of every team defense on a weekly basis the past couple of years and have found that the top team defenses fantasy-wise are consistently out-performed by teams facing the league's worst offenses in any given week. This has led me to adopt the strategy of simply playing the waiver wire every week to grab the top available defense (defined by a combination of that defense's performance to date and the ineptitude of the offense they are facing) instead of trying to spend money on a "good" defense at the auction.
This strategy is not without its flaws, the biggest of which is deciding what to do early in the season when we don't yet know which offenses are going to be terrible. This difficulty is compounded this year by the fact that the NFL schedule has a lot of fairly even-looking matchups in Week 1, in which a lot of the offenses expected to struggle are playing defenses that look nearly as bad.
Who would you guys target to draft at the auction and use in Week 1 based on these matchups?
THU, SEP 9 TIME (ET)
Minnesota at New Orleans 8:30 PM
SUN, SEP 12 TIME (ET)
Miami at Buffalo 1:00 PM
Detroit at Chicago 1:00 PM
Oakland at Tennessee 1:00 PM
Cincinnati at New England 1:00 PM
Carolina at NY Giants 1:00 PM
Atlanta at Pittsburgh 1:00 PM
Cleveland at Tampa Bay 1:00 PM
Denver at Jacksonville 1:00 PM
Indianapolis at Houston 1:00 PM
San Francisco at Seattle 4:15 PM
Green Bay at Philadelphia 4:15 PM
Arizona at St. Louis 4:15 PM
Dallas at Washington 8:20 PM
MON, SEP 13 TIME (ET)
Baltimore at NY Jets 7:00 PM
San Diego at Kansas City 10:15 PM
20 replies , Last at 24 Sep 2010, 10:39am by bird jam
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
NYG will be bid pretty high, but I like their chances against CAR. Likewise with BAL, who KUBIAK has among the best and most people in their top 5.
Otherwise, MIA has a couple things going for it with a weak BUF opponent and MIA's offense chewing up clock. ARI against STL is a little riskier, but you've got a rookie QB who just lost a WR.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
KJO1080:
I like the CHI/DET match-up. I think DET offense will be much improved this year, but so will CHI defense. I think CHI Def will score a lot of pts. in week 1. I use a similar strategy in my leagues and am currently planning on picking up CHI DEF.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
Cool, thanks for the suggestions. BAL and NYG will probably be bidded up a bit as they are historically strong defenses. And we have a big Bears fan in our league, so CHI is probably not going to be an option. But MIA and ARI might be good ones to go after.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
NYG does look like a decent bet for week 1. As mentioned, though, they might go for more than $1; if you're planning to play matchups with your D, you definitely don't want to spend extra money there.
MIA does look good, and will probably be a $1 play. In my auction league, I'm looking at them and Tampa, at home against Jake Delhomme.
Just to point out the flip side of the ARI and CHI picks: STL is playing against Derek Anderson, who was a boon to opposing D's last year. In one of my leagues (which doesn't count points against), I might grab Detroit, because I see that game as being Sack City.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
Well, I went with the Dolphins and was rewarded in Week 1. Who do you guys think I should target in Week 2? Miami is playing Minnesota, and while the Vikings looked pretty pitiful Thursday night, they still have enough weapons to scare me.
Here are the teams I'm considering:
DET vs. PHI - The Lions' D looked pretty good last week and I'm not sold on the Vick Experience.
CAR vs. TB
NE @ NYJ
STL @ OAK
OAK vs. STL
Pickings are kind of slim this week - most of the good defenses are already on teams.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
Another option:
ATL vs. AZ: Derek Anderson + below average OL should yield a useful point total. I expect Atlanta to control the clock and put up plenty of points, which will pressure Arizona to pass more. Should be a boon for Atlanta's defense.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
Thanks for the suggestion, but a guy in my league lives in Atlanta and always loads up his team with Falcons, so their defense isn't an option for me.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
My next choice would be NE, for the reasons tally suggested. I'm adopting the same strategy--in week 1, I used MIA, AZ (x2), and CHI in my four leagues--and hope it works out in my favor. I plan to use either ATL or NE in all my leagues this week.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
NE if they're available. Jets looked pretty inept yesterday.
CAR is risky b/c I think their QB might put their D in some bad spots.
DET and STL didn't play against good offenses the previous week, so it's hard to say that they performed well.
OAK got hammered by TEN, not sure they could stop SJax.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
Cool, thanks.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
Well, damn. The Patriots got grabbed before I could grab them.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
So these are my choices now:
PLAYER, TEAM POS OPP
Seahawks D/ST, Sea D/ST @Den
Giants D/ST, NYG D/ST @Ind
Bears D/ST, Chi D/ST @Dal
Lions D/ST, Det D/ST Phi
Cardinals D/ST, Ari D/ST @Atl
Rams D/ST, StL D/ST @Oak
Browns D/ST, Cle D/ST KC
Redskins D/ST, Was D/ST Hou
Panthers D/ST, Car D/ST TB
Jaguars D/ST, Jac D/ST @SD
Chargers D/ST, SD D/ST Jac
Bills D/ST, Buf D/ST @GB
Buccaneers D/ST, TB D/ST @Car
Chiefs D/ST, KC D/ST @Cle
Texans D/ST, Hou D/ST @Was
Broncos D/ST, Den D/ST Sea
Colts D/ST, Ind D/ST NYG
Raiders D/ST, Oak D/ST StL
Pretty slim pickin's...
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
I like KC @ CLE if you score for ST. Bucs @ CAR if you don't.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
Kick/punt return TDs do not count in our league. Am I correct in assuming you meant you recommended the Panthers (as opposed to the Bucs)? That is who I have been leaning toward.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
FWIW, I still currently have the Dolphins so I could use them if I don't want to try one of the teams listed above.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
I actually prefer the Bucs D, just because Moore looks inept and if he's still out with the concussion, Clausen looks like easy pickings.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
Interesting.
The Falcons actually just got dropped too. Would they be a better option?
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
Damn, should have just stuck with the Dolphins. But my entire team combined for 42 points yesterday (and I faced Schaub,) so a wrong choice at D/ST didn't end up costing me the victory by itself...
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
Yeah, sorry about that. Usually 14 pts from Bucs D (or 12 from KC) isn't a bad day but 21 pts from Dolphins was a little unexpected.
Re: My team defense strategy (and a question for discussion)
No problem at all, it was my decision and like I said it didn't cost me the game. My whole team pulled a disappearing act last week. Thanks for your input.
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